A lot has been made of the plight of the Portuguese economy and the impact it has had on migration levels – especially amongst the young. Portugal was hit hard by the global economic recession and has faced spiralling unemployment rates and quarter after quarter of negative growth. A recent report by the Stockwell Partnership found that:
The economic situation in Portugal had led to increasing numbers migrating to London under the perception it offers jobs, housing and a better life for their families.
Using statistics from the Observatório da Emigração and Eurostat to see if there really is a connection between emigration and the economic downturn in Portugal (represented by the rate of unemployment).
2008 marks the real start of economic trouble in Portugal and sees unemployment jump 2% in a single year as part of a rising trend. During this period the Portuguese population in the UK consistently rises as well. This would seem to suggest that as the Stockwell Partnership has reported more and more Portuguese are being encouraged to leave their homes to seek work abroad. However it may not be as simple as that. The Portuguese Economy Blog (an expert on.. the Portuguese economy) notes that Portuguese people have a history of emigration, even during the 1990s when the economy was booming, with 1 in 5 university graduates emigrating (the second highest rate in Europe). However in this instance there does seem to be a link between correlation and causation.
As this blog covers the Portuguese community in the UK it only has focused on Portuguese coming to the UK. This is not the complete picture however, many Portuguese have been drawn to their former colonies in South America and Africa. Business in Angola and Brazil is booming in comparison, and in the former skilled graduates can earn 4 times as much as in Portugal. The massive infrastructure projects required to put on a World Cup and Summer Olympics in quick succession has also attracted plenty of Portuguese migrants.
The data only runs up until 2011 but Portugal’s economy has continued to struggle, it continued to rise steadily and currently stands at 16.9% having peaked earlier in January at 17.5%. It’s hoped that Portugal has reached it’s nadir and is now on the slow path to recovery. Tuesday saw Portugal sell its first government bonds since the EU bailout in 2011, this lead Vito Gaspar, Portugal’s Finance Minister, to state that the government’s economic measures are working. The austerity programme implemented the government, which saw 30,000 civil service jobs axed this week, has been unpopular but if it helps restart the economy it could see tens of thousands of Portuguese return home.
Image from Wikimedia Commons.
The Portugal Connection 
